Running a supply simulation in SIMCEL is a critical step to evaluate the alignment between your supply plans and demand forecasts. This guideline helps you navigate the process effectively, so you achieve accurate and meaningful results.
Before running a supply simulation, make sure the following prerequisite is met:
SIT levels - You have finished setting the SIT (Sales In Target) levels per distributor and product. This defines the expected Sales In levels for each scenario.
Create or edit the scenario you want to run the simulation for.
Creating or editing the scenario to simulate
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Associate the scenario with a supply plan
Ensure that the scenario is associated with the appropriate supply plan. If it is not already imported, upload the supply plan scenario in the ETL screen.
SIMCEL performs a sanity check on Primary Sales by checking whether any negative value exists.
A popup warning may appear to inform you about the exclusion of negative values. If this happens, click Confirm to continue, or Cancel if you would prefer to adjust your SIT parameters.
The warning popup about excluded negative Sales In values
Initial stock determination - The simulation begins by determining the initial stock level, using the closing stock of the period before the simulation start date.
Sales and inventory simulation:
For each month, the tool adds the supply quantity to the beginning inventory.
The resulting inventory level is compared with the Unconstrained Sales In to determine demand fulfillment.
If the inventory level meets or exceeds the unconstrained demand, the Constrained Sales In equals the Unconstrained Sales In. If not, it is limited to the available stock.
Once the simulation is complete, you can access the output files of each scenario. These include:
Simulation Sales In - Contains Constrained Sales In data for each distributor.
Demand Fulfillment Metric - Breaks down distributor demand into individual orders, showing fulfillment status.
Detailed Inventory Metrics - Provides a comprehensive record of inventory levels, including opening and closing stocks, quantities received, quantities shipped, and any adjustments.
Atomic KPIs - Offers granular data, including product details, distributor information, and location data, for in-depth analysis.
Use the insights gained from the simulation to make necessary adjustments to your supply and demand plans.
After you validate the Primary Sales In, the simulation starts running. A dialogue indicates the steps and the current simulation progress.
You can temporarily hide this dialogue by clicking Keep working.
After hiding the dialogue, you can still monitor the simulation’s progress by checking the scenario tab. A loading indicator appears right next to the scenario being triggered.
The simulation progress dialogue with the Keep working button
The loading indicator next to the running scenario in the scenario tab
Once a supply simulation is complete, you can access detailed metrics to analyze the outcomes and make informed decisions. The SIT table lets you toggle between unconstrained and constrained metrics, giving a comprehensive view of supply chain performance.The primary outcome of the simulation is the Constrained Primary Sales, which is the volume of products the company can supply to its distributors. Based on this revised sales input, the tool recalculates the following metrics.
Reflects the quantity of stock currently at the distributors, expressed in days of sales.
Provides insight into inventory levels in a normalized way.
If any of the selected scenarios have not been simulated, switching to Constrained mode shows no data for that scenario.
If you modify the input - for example by choosing a new supply plan or setting new unconstrained metrics - you can re-run the simulation with the updated inputs.
The SIT table toggled to constrained metrics after a simulation
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